Ottawa says it’s taking a ‘cautious’ approach to possible emerging Russian threat

Hybrid attacks are those that fall under the threshold of traditional warfare, such as cyber operations and acts of sabotage aimed at throwing adversaries off-balance.

Earlier Tuesday, Defence Minister David McGuinty said he’s taking a “cautious” approach to drawing conclusions from the available intelligence.

Asked by The Canadian Press if he’s concerned about warnings from Europe about Russia’s next moves, the minister said Ottawa is watching the situation closely.

“I’m very cautious about what conclusions to draw at this stage. It’s very difficult to assimilate all the data,” McGuinty said in a brief scrum after delivering a speech to the Canadian Club of Ottawa.

The defence minister also said there is “no doubt” that hybrid warfare is “on the expansion” due to countries like Russia, which he said has engaged in some “extremely unacceptable conduct.”

In recent days, some NATO members have issued warnings and taken precautions in anticipation of Russian attacks.

Late last week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned the public the Kremlin might be planning to hit NATO countries with drones or missiles and to claim the attacks were accidental.

French President Emmanuel Macron summoned other party leaders in France for a closed-door intelligence briefing Friday and rolled out new measures to protect critical infrastructure, including defence sites.

Lithuania’s president said intelligence assessments suggest Russia is planning attacks on energy and transport infrastructure in Baltic states or Poland.

Russia has dismissed such claims as justification for NATO’s military buildup.

When Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store was in Ottawa on Sunday, he said the warnings from NATO members should be taken seriously but also cautioned against overestimating the threat.

“We have in our open assessments of intelligence threats against Norway that there are real threats coming from hybrid activity, ranging all the way to potential sabotage,” Store told a joint news conference with Carney on Sunday.

“But I would add, let not that become a frenzy — that you see that threat at every corner — because sometimes it may be played up in a way which is not corresponding with realities.”

On Sunday, Jonatan Vseviov, Estonia’s secretary general of foreign affairs, said there has been “a lot of panic on social media lately” about Baltic security. He said in a social media post that if there was any reason to believe an attack is imminent, governments would make that clear.

In recent weeks, Denmark accused a Russian ship of shooting flares at a Danish helicopter and Italian jets downed a drone over Lithuanian airspace. Germany has also blamed Russia for a drone attack on an airport in Leipzig last month; an explosive drone was discovered near Ukrainian cargo planes after it failed to detonate.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed a new continental security forum that could better respond to hybrid threats that fall short of acts of war, and which could include Canada as a partner.

On Saturday, outgoing chair of the NATO military committee Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone said Russia has been testing the alliance’s resolve in recent weeks and months.

Dragone said Moscow’s behaviour has been reckless, citing recent aerospace violations, drone incidents and other hybrid activities.

“We cannot ignore this. The threat is real,” he said. “But I want to be clear. These attempts are not dividing us. They are sharpening our tools, making us more united and determined.”

At the annual NATO summit this past summer, Carney announced an extension of the Canadian-led mission in Latvia until 2031. He also announced Canada will shore up its deployment there by boosting the troop count to around 2,600.

McGuinty thanked the family members of the 2,000 troops in Latvia.

“This is an important forward-operating location. It’s a very important moment for Canada and the multinational brigade that Canada leads there.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 22, 2026.

— With files from The Associated Press

Kyle Duggan, The Canadian Press

by The Canadian Press

Ottawa says it’s taking a ‘cautious’ approach to possible emerging Russian threat

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