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Housing amid tariffs

Housing market sees successful January

Feb 6, 2025 | 2:57 PM

Tariffs or no tariffs, the housing market is off to a strong 2025 in Saskatchewan.

“I think the biggest take away is that more affordable regions are going to lead with price and sale recovery in 2025,” said Saskatchewan Realtors Association CEO Chris Guérette.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation recently came out with its 2025 Housing Market Outlook and they “expect housing sales and prices to rebound as lower mortgage rates and changes to mortgage rules unlock pent-up demand in the short term.”

Guérette explained that because provinces such as Ontario and British Columbia are unaffordable, it’ll be the western provinces that will make the dent.

“The report mentions Alberta and Quebec, but really we know that Saskatchewan’s more affordable,” she said.

That bears out in the local market and according to Wally Lorenz, owner and broker of RE/MAX of the Battlefords. This time of year is usually quiet, but January has been a successful month.

“Our office seems to be busy, I think everybody else is somewhat busy,” he said.

“We’ve got some sales that have come through, now those sales that come through in January are normally November or December work, but there’s lots of stuff on the go.”

Residential benchmarks

According to the latest monthly figures reported by the SRA, there’s an upward trend in the North Battleford residential benchmark price of $209,300.

“I think everybody is pretty conscientious of the fact that our market, it can only handle so much,” he said.

“We don’t have the economic dollars generated in the Battlefords as we would do in some of the larger centres.”

According to Guérette, the inventory available is still down 44 per cent below the 10-year average and down 19 per cent year over year.

“Our inventory situation is actually not showing any sign of getting better,” she said.

“That may change in 2025,” the CEO added, noting it was a good time to put homes on the market.

For those looking to buy, patience is going to be key.

“It doesn’t mean that it’s not a good time to buy, it just means that for most people, they need to…recalibrate their expectations,” she said.

“Our realtors are working a lot harder to move quickly, find something that is suitable and for longer because that’s where the market is at.

Most affordable

According to a news release, there were 782 sales across the province last month although new listings declined by two per cent year over year.

“When we say we’re the most affordable place in the country, but I also know that falls flat for individuals who are still struggling to get into that housing market,” she said.

“We still have those realities in Saskatchewan like we do anywhere else, but as long as our inventory numbers don’t move up, it’s going to continue to put increased pressure on those prices.”

In the Town of Battleford, December had a residential benchmark increase of nine per cent year over year at $252,100, according to the SRA and Meadow Lake saw an upward trend of 3.9 per cent, which translated into $274,200 last month.

Part of the reason the Battlefords are doing well has to do with the cost of living elsewhere. Lorenz said there are people leaving other provinces like Ontario and Quebec in favour of the prairies while others in the United States have made enquiries.

“This tariff thing that he’s doing that’s going to kill his country – ‘cause it costs them money when he puts tariffs on product coming out of Canada – that is a dollar that’s paid by his people,” he said referring to U.S. President Donald Trump.

How it’s going to affect the real estate market provincially, he said time will tell but it will have an impact on the larger cities like Montreal, Toronto or Vancouver.

Where Lorenz sees Saskatchewan taking a hit is in the potash, rare earth and uranium industries, which in turn would have a trickledown effect.

“If this thing went into six months to a year, absolutely we’re going to be – things will get crazy – depending on what happens to the interest rates,” he said.

“If the interest rates start going back up again to try and protect things here, if that’s what they decide to do, that’ll…really slow down the real estate market.”

A disruption

In the meantime, Guérette said the provincial residential benchmark was up seven per cent and is now at $342,600. All regions reported price gains, meaning there is a strong demand.

“Same story, we need more housing in this province,” she said.

With the threat of tariffs hanging over the country, Guérette said they will produce a “tremendous disruption on supply chain” because the economies are so intertwined. She said the cost of the house is divided into four areas: land and labour, taxes and materials – the latter of which will be impacted.

“I think since the pandemic, we are now more seasoned to hear that, ‘Trust your supply chain,’” she said.

“It’s creating so much uncertainty, we haven’t had that kind of tariff for decades, so it’s hard to see what the actual impact will be,” she said.

Materials like lumber, flooring, windows, doors, kitchen cabinets, roofing material, and insulation can be purchased in Canada or the U.S., it depends on who the builder is dealing with.

“With that supply chain disruption is going to come an increase in prices,” Guérette.

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julia.lovettsquires@pattisonmedia.com

On BlueSky: juleslovett.bsky.social