Costco shopping in March 2020. (Lara Fominoff/650 CKOM)

By Lara Fominoff

Flow of consumer goods should remain stable through fall and winter, says University of Saskatchewan expert

Sep 24, 2020 | 1:24 PM

An associate professor of marketing at the University of Saskatchewan doesn’t believe this fall and winter, the province will experience the widespread shortage of some basic items like we did last spring.

At this point, David Williams believes supply chains, which are the logistics and the supply of goods from the producers to the consumer, will remain stable.

Williams says the toilet paper/personal protective equipment/cleaning product shortage was something quite extraordinary- because the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, which reached Saskatchewan in early March – was also unexpected.

“This one was so unexpected that it’s still miraculous that there was still toilet paper and wipes to be had. And this was an exceptional circumstance that couldn’t be predicted.”

He says now, most uncertainties – notwithstanding an event like a natural disaster or a massive second COVID-19 wave – can and are being anticipated.

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“I think our supply chains are built and are in place… and I think it’s only when they break down that we realize how important, how vital they are. The thing is, they’re so flexible now, and they’re based on ‘just in time purchasing’ and keeping inventory a(t) a minimum, they’re very efficient and very coordinated.”

That said, he does believe there could be the odd shortage for a day, or perhaps for several days at a time. However, he adds the supply chain is so organized and so sophisticated that it’s stabilized over the last six months.

“Our consumption habits are kind of the same as they were last year. We do things more routinely now. We’re not panic buying…I think we’re kind of stabilizing in our purchasing.”

Back in March, Williams says it was the “herd mentality,” and “panic buying” that drove the shortages.

“Normally you can predict those on local surges. It’s just hard to do on such a scale last time on COVID because it was more of a national/North American problem.”

He also doesn’t believe that COVID-19 will greatly affect certain parts of the supply chain, like the railways or truckers who transport goods.

But what about goods that many people on the prairies depend on, like fruits and vegetables, that come from other countries? Unless specific areas where those items come from are devastated by weather, insects, or worker shortages, it probably won’t be a huge concern.

“Our supply chain is so integrated that they’re “meshed” across borders that…those boundaries in some ways are artificial,” he said.

Even if local warehouses or manufacturing facilities experience an outbreak, like the beef and pork production facilities in Alberta late last spring, Williams says products will keep flowing.

“If there’s an outbreak at a warehouse, there are other personnel to take their place. I don’t think there will be a big shut down. Most retailers have other distribution centres near another town; another centre they can play off and obtain other products from.”

His advice? If something isn’t available when you want it and it’s not an essential item, it will likely be available in a few days, a week, or shortly thereafter.

“If we see a bare shelf, we think the world’s coming to an end. But really, given the abundance of choice we have, the supply chain is doing a miraculous job.”