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A look at early SJHL statistical trends

Oct 19, 2017 | 2:00 PM

At the beginning of each hockey season, there are bound to be anomolies: stats that strike you as odd or strange (sometimes for good reason).

While some trends will likely continue (Layne Young scoring lots), many of these trends won’t continue. 

As analytics guru Tyler Delow points out for The Athletic, “In small samples, crazy things happen. Guys who aren’t particularly good at scoring score a pile of goals. The more information you have, the more certain you can be that something is real rather than a chimera.”

For example (and this is not a shot at this particular player), Weyburn’s Ben Hiltz currently has six goals in eight games. Over a full Saskatchewan Junior Hockey League season, that’s a 43-goal pace. It’s safe to say this won’t continue over a larger sample size. Last year, Hiltz had four goals in 43 games. 

At the NHL level, there are numerous stats available that can help predict future individual player success as all sorts of numbers are recorded by statisticians all over the league.

Unfortunately, the SJHL does not keep of track of anywhere near the same amount of stats that the NHL does, and so it’s tough to look at individual player trends to predict future success (the league does not even count individual shots on goal.)

But one thing we can look at is team trends (at least some of them).

The stat to look at that tracks which teams are getting more early season bounces than others is PDO (a term which is actually not an acronym for anything).

In the chart below, each team’s save percentage and shooting percentage has been mapped against what the league averages are so far this season. The 12 SJHL teams as a whole are so far scoring at a 10 per cent clip (457 goals on 4,564 shots), which is represented by the vertical axis. That means the average save percentage this season is .900, represented by the horizontal axis.

So what can this chart teach us? Here are a few trends.

Estevan Bruins truly one of a kind (again)

The Estevan Bruins like to score. And they’re good at it.

They also give up a lot of goals. They’re good at that too.

That’s why they’re all off on their own in the bottom right corner of the chart, aptly labelled “goals for everyone”.

But that’s no secret. Look at the SJHL standings page and you’ll see they lead the league in goals with 69 and have the fourth-highest goals against with 45.

So what can the chart tell us that the standings page can’t?

Well, it tells us that the Bruins high goal total is not likely to continue, nor is their high goals against.

Their team shooting percentage of 13.4 is much too high to last, and their team save percentage of .867 is just plain ugly. Last year, the Bruins (who also scored a lot and gave up a lot as well) finished the season with a 10.88 team shooting percentage and an .899 save percentage. 

In fact, if you look at the PDO from all of last season, you can see how teams gravitate towards the middle as more games are played.

Expect the Sherwood Division to tighten up

Much like at the beginning of last year, the Flin Flon Bombers have an average PDO. They aren’t getting lucky on either side of the puck. But they also aren’t getting unlucky, as their 9.1 shooting percentage and .903 save percentage are almost right on par.

Compare that to the two teams ahead of them in the division and you can see why Melfort and Nipawin have impressive records so far.

Melfort is getting extremely solid goaltending (.931 save percentage) and they’re scoring at a 12.7 percentage clip, nearly three per cent higher than the league average. Nipawin meanwhile is shooting at 13.4 per cent, just like the Bruins. 

Melfort and Nipawin’s team shooting percentage will slowly start to come back to earth as the season goes on, meaning less goals for. It’s tough to judge how that might translate into wins and losses, but a betting man might say Flin Flon starts to creep up on both Melfort and Nipawin in the standings.

Humboldt a good bet to break out

Right now, the Olympic Buildings Division is extremely tight. First place (Notre Dame) to last place (Battlefords) is only separated by three points.

If one team were to break away from the pack, it’s likely to be the Humboldt Broncos, who have seen bad luck in net and in terms of goal scoring. Not terribly bad, but still, their 8.4 shooting percentage is not doing them any favours (especially for a team so talented up front) and their .891 save percentage should improve, albeit marginally.

By no means will they run away with the division, but if the numbers are any indication, Humboldt could grab a division lead in the next few weeks if they manage to keep putting up all the shots they have so far.

 

nathan.kanter@jpbg.ca

On Twitter: @NathanKanter11